Analytics
Yes is at 83.5%, up 18 points from 65.5% when the market opened on 24 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026, the highest close was 83.5% on 25 Oct 2026 and the lowest 65.5% on 24 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 83.5% on 25 Oct 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”.
$1.13K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.42K since listing. The order book holds $1.57K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 24 trades, $591.84 bought Yes and $67.34 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Violet Vector B233 with 802 shares; the largest No position is virgilia with 210.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 3:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 24 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 60%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | 65.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 83.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 802.31 |
| virgilia | No | 210 |
| GotGreenWood | No | 200 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-30-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027
| AJSV |
| No |
| 103.17 |
| Majas | No | 79.31 |
| WarriorH | No | 53 |
| gfdgfvfvssdd | No | 40 |
| boofa | No | 40 |
| tradeo39 | Yes | 30 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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