Analytics
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?
techActive
Closes Jan 1, 2028 UTC
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Yes costs 63.5¢No costs 36.5¢
24h Volume
$7.7K
Total volume
$196.8K
Liquidity
$14.8K
Closes
Jan 1, 2028 UTC
Where it stands
Yes is at 63.5%, down 9 points from 72.5% when the market opened on 20 Aug 2026.
Across the 84 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 72.5% on 20 Aug 2026 and the lowest 55.5% on 25 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 65%; a month before, 66.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 55.5% on 25 Sep 2026.
December 31, 2027 is the favourite of the 3 outcomes in “FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?”, ahead of September 30, 2027 at 24%.
Across the latest 500 trades, $6.34K bought Yes and $10.42K bought No; the largest was a $3.13K sell of No at 38.9¢.
Ten wallets hold 85.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 9:55 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 84 points, 20 Aug 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 50%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | 72.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 63.5% |
All outcomes
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
- 1December 31, 2027This market$196.85K traded63.5%
- 2September 30, 2027$30.59K traded24.0%
- 3June 30, 2027
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Brokie | Yes | 15K |
| AllByMyseIf | No | 11.38K |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | Yes | 5.22K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.