Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 6 points from 17.5% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 326 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17.5% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 6.5% on 1 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%; a month before, 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 7% on 15 Nov 2025.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon ranks fourth of the 45 outcomes in “Next French Presidential Election”. Marine Le Pen leads at 43%; Édouard Philippe is at 17.5%.
$55.51K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.62M since listing. The order book holds $648.16K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $23.08K bought Yes and $6.9K bought No; the largest was a $4.41K buy of Yes at 11.0¢.
The largest Yes position is LlamaLoco0000 with 297.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.33M. Ten wallets hold 67.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 19 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 326 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 17.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.33M |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 297.83K |
| PappyB | Yes | 160.76K |
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election
33 more outcomes, none above 0.4%.
| Luche38bnb |
| Yes |
| 88.42K |
| lastminwin | No | 78.37K |
| BaucheJerome | Yes | 67.18K |
| Momo63 | No | 45.78K |
| spx11 | Yes | 44.88K |
| Bonsai45 | Yes | 40.54K |
| LFI2027 | Yes | 35.16K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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