Analytics
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
politicsActive
Closes Jan 28, 2027 UTC
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Yes costs 57.5¢No costs 42.5¢
24h Volume
$1.0K
Total volume
$836.9K
Liquidity
$108.3K
Closes
Jan 28, 2027 UTC
Topic roomFed and FOMC
Where it stands
Yes is at 57.5%, up 33 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 31 Jul 2026.
Across the 104 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 62.5% on 13 Nov 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 6 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18.5%; a month before, 40.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 48% on 11 Nov 2026.
25 bps increase is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Fed Decision in January?”, ahead of No change at 41.5%.
Across the latest 500 trades, $164.68K bought Yes and $13.22K bought No; the largest was a $27.72K buy of Yes at 49.0¢.
Ten wallets hold 91.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 28 Jan 2027, 75 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 9:55 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 104 points, 31 Jul 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 24.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 57.5% |
All outcomes
Fed Decision in January?
- 125 bps increaseThis market$836.91K traded57.5%
- 2No change$717.75K traded41.5%
- 3
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 352.09K |
| CDAP1 | Yes | 327.49K |
| Frayed-Focus | Yes | 48.09K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm, federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Trading closes on 28 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in Fed and FOMC
- Inflation and jobs releases between meetings
- Speeches and testimony by the chair and voting members
- The statement, projections and press conference at each meeting