Analytics
Yes is at 25.5%, down 18 points from 43% when the market opened on 30 Jun 2026.
Across the 116 daily closes on record from 30 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43% on 30 Jun 2026 and the lowest 20.5% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 25%; a month before, 22.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 31.5% on 1 Jul 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Iran leadership change by...?”.
$15.18 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $452.34K since listing. The order book holds $48.26K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $14.28K bought Yes and $11.19K bought No; the largest was a $7.21K buy of Yes at 23.1¢.
The largest Yes position is flopped with 5.6K shares; the largest No position is zhaoyk with 20K. Ten wallets hold 58.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 116 points, 30 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 43.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zhaoyk | No | 20K |
| AlAhmeda | No | 11.68K |
| Detailed-Lip | No | 6.14K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by
| flopped |
| Yes |
| 5.63K |
| EasyGoingA | Yes | 5.11K |
| Dima79 | Yes | 4.84K |
| yikaiz | No | 3.43K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 2.79K |
| Rolocex | No | 2.66K |
| givemeusername | No | 2.54K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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