Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 12 points from 14% when the market opened on 8 Aug 2026.
Across the 76 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14% on 8 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2%; a month before, 3.5%.
It is one of 4 markets under “Iran leadership change by...?”.
$23.46K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $755.53K since listing. The order book holds $90.85K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5.3K bought Yes and $88.16K bought No; the largest was a $6.92K buy of No at 99.0¢.
The largest Yes position is luka112 with 43.9K shares; the largest No position is stupid22 with 102.8K. Ten wallets hold 55.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 3:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 14.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 3.2% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by
| classified |
| No |
| 26.95K |
| Dellabc1 | Yes | 17.43K |
| Kawabanga25 | Yes | 17.28K |
| Yoyoyoyo23 | Yes | 17K |
| Ringed-Gambling | Yes | 14.17K |
| Animated-Lamb | Yes | 13.75K |
| AlAhmeda | No | 13.41K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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