Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 51 points from 65% when the market opened on 10 Mar 2026.
Across the 205 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68.5% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 26 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.5%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 44% on 26 Mar 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Iran leadership change by...?”.
$31.82K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.61M since listing. The order book holds $133.81K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $12.7K bought Yes and $118.26K bought No; the largest was a $17.38K sell of No at 85.0¢.
The largest Yes position is 3.3.3 with 242.7K shares; the largest No position is stupid22 with 212K. Ten wallets hold 50.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 205 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 65.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by
| thoodr |
| No |
| 42.81K |
| nonkenny90 | No | 37.16K |
| MEPP | Yes | 34.57K |
| kenzok | Yes | 34.38K |
| zthunderfury | No | 32.2K |
| Tigerofthehood | No | 31.87K |
| tsybkaVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 30K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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