Analytics
US imports Russian diesel by March 31?
geopoliticsActive
Closes Apr 1, 2027 UTC
Yes
15.5%
No
84.5%
Yes costs 15.5¢No costs 84.5¢
24h Volume
$878
Total volume
$69.8K
Liquidity
$12.7K
Closes
Apr 1, 2027 UTC
Topic roomOil, gold and commoditiesRussia–Ukraine
Where it stands
Yes is at 15.5%, down 33 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 31 Oct 2026.
Across the 16 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 70% on 1 Nov 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 11 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 36% on 4 Nov 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “US imports Russian diesel by...?”.
Across the latest 500 trades, $4.41K bought Yes and $12.68K bought No; the largest was a $1.15K sell of No at 77.1¢.
Ten wallets hold 81.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 9:55 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 31 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | 48.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 15.5% |
Same event
US imports Russian diesel by...?
- 1March 31This market$69.81K traded15.5%
- 2January 31$226.49K traded12.5%
- 3December 31
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 1nvoker1 | No | 7.76K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 3.47K |
| EdvardRunch | No | 992.21 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Sources named in the rules: truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143, ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33. Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-imports-russian-diesel-by-october-31
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
- Oil, gold and commodities oddsWhat price will crude oil hit?
- Russia–Ukraine oddsWill there be a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire?
What to watch in Oil, gold and commodities
- OPEC+ production decisions and compliance with them
- Shipping disruption in the Gulf and the Red Sea, covered in its own room
- US crude inventories, published weekly by the Energy Information Administration