Analytics
US imports Russian diesel by January 31?
geopoliticsActive
Closes Feb 1, 2027 UTC
Yes
12.5%
No
87.5%
Yes costs 12.5¢No costs 87.5¢
24h Volume
$185
Total volume
$226.5K
Liquidity
$12.8K
Closes
Feb 1, 2027 UTC
Topic roomOil, gold and commoditiesRussia–Ukraine
Where it stands
Yes is at 12.5%, down 56 points from 68.5% when the market opened on 2 Nov 2026.
Across the 14 daily closes on record from 2 Nov 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 68.5% on 2 Nov 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 11 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 33.5% on 4 Nov 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “US imports Russian diesel by...?”.
Across the latest 500 trades, $14.12K bought Yes and $29.03K bought No; the largest was a $10.94K sell of No at 88.0¢.
Ten wallets hold 79.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 79 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 9:55 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 2 Nov 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | 68.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 12.5% |
Same event
US imports Russian diesel by...?
- 1March 31$69.81K traded15.5%
- 2January 31This market$226.49K traded12.5%
- 3December 31
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 1nvoker1 | No | 7.33K |
| jklsjdwoqejasdf | Yes | 1.04K |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yes | 862.18 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Sources named in the rules: truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143, ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33. Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-imports-russian-diesel-by-october-31
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
- Oil, gold and commodities oddsWhat price will crude oil hit?
- Russia–Ukraine oddsWill there be a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire?
What to watch in Oil, gold and commodities
- OPEC+ production decisions and compliance with them
- Shipping disruption in the Gulf and the Red Sea, covered in its own room
- US crude inventories, published weekly by the Energy Information Administration