Analytics
Yes is at 83.5%, up 39 points from 44.5% when the market opened on 20 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 20 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 32% on 21 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 32% on 21 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “US imports Russian diesel by...?”.
$1.69K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $47.15K since listing. The order book holds $19.54K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 334 trades, $13.63K bought Yes and $7.03K bought No; the largest was a $1.71K buy of No at 63.5¢.
The largest Yes position is Newshound with 2.9K shares; the largest No position is 1nvoker1 with 5.4K. Ten wallets hold 60.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 11:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 20 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 44.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 83.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 1nvoker1 | No | 5.38K |
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 3.34K |
| Newshound | Yes | 2.89K |
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-imports-russian-diesel-by-october-31
| wallet-account-test |
| No |
| 1.5K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 1.45K |
| Polocap | Yes | 1.2K |
| Ideal-Arch | Yes | 1.12K |
| AJSV | No | 1.09K |
| theta-thunberg | Yes | 1.04K |
| bonalddrunk | No | 1.04K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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