Analytics
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
politicsActive
Closes Apr 19, 2027 UTC
Yes
6.5%
No
93.5%
Yes costs 6.5¢No costs 93.5¢
24h Volume
$124.3K
Total volume
$3.5M
Liquidity
$352.2K
Closes
Apr 19, 2027 UTC
Topic roomFrench Election 2027World elections
Where it stands
Yes is at 6.5%, down 14 points from 20.5% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 350 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 14 Nov 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33.5% on 1 Apr 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 14 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11.5%; a month before, 19.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 33.5% on 1 Apr 2026.
Édouard Philippe ranks fifth of the 46 outcomes in “Next French Presidential Election”. Marine Le Pen leads at 47.3%; David Lisnard is at 17.1%.
Across the latest 500 trades, $13.26K bought Yes and $30.9K bought No; the largest was a $7.19K buy of No at 92.1¢.
Ten wallets hold 75.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 19 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 9:49 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 350 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 20.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 4.5% |
All outcomes
Next French Presidential Election
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 1.81M |
| BurstedBubble | Yes | 229.87K |
| LeRoiSoleil | Yes | 203.22K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Sources named in the rules: interieur.gouv.fr. Trading closes on 19 Apr 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
- French Election 2027 oddsWho will win the 2027 French presidential election?
- World elections oddsWhat do prediction markets say about the next national elections?
What to watch in French Election 2027
- Eligibility rulings, which can remove a leading name from the ballot before a vote is cast
- Which candidate each bloc settles on: the centre, the mainstream right and the left have each split before
- First-round polling, and second-round hypotheticals against each likely opponent