Analytics
Yes is at 100%, up 26 points from 73.5% when the market opened on 29 Sep 2026.
Across the 43 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 14 Nov 2026 and the lowest 16% on 1 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 51.5%; a month before, 47%. Its largest one-day move was 48 points up, to 100% on 14 Nov 2026.
Chopsticks catch Starship? is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?”, ahead of Successful splash down? at 0.1%.
Across the latest 500 trades, $8.6K bought Yes and $3.23K bought No; the largest was a $1.3K buy of Yes at 60.1¢.
Ten wallets hold 47.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 9:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 73.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 100.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xquadro | Yes | 2.73K |
| egg-multi-turboV2 | No | 1.61K |
| GonTanaka | No | 1.52K |
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: youtube.com/c/SpaceX. Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15
| Optimus- |
| No |
| 1.51K |
| unpaidinternyes | No | 1.12K |
| Elonurmom | Yes | 871.6 |
| nellojello | Yes | 864.4 |
| Blowme_Wan_Kenobi | No | 785.01 |
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 636.14 |
| KiruaTrading | No | 624.57 |
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