Analytics
Will there be 3 or more government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?
politicsActive
Closes Jan 1, 2028 UTC
Yes
16.5%
No
83.5%
Yes costs 16.5¢No costs 83.5¢
24h Volume
$2.5K
Total volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$2.9K
Closes
Jan 1, 2028 UTC
Topic roomGovernment shutdown
Where it stands
Yes is at 16.5%, up 3 points from 13.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2026.
Across the 10 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 16.5% on 14 Nov 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 6 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14%.
3+ ranks fourth of the 4 outcomes in “How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?”. 1 leads at 36%; 2 is at 31.5%.
The best bid and the best ask are 3.0% apart, so read the price as a range. Across the latest 40 trades, $231.14 bought Yes and $669.93 bought No.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 6 Nov 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 10%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 13.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 16.5% |
All outcomes
How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mr.Frog🐸 | Yes | 1.15K |
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 532.55 |
| AiBird | No | 483.43 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in Government shutdown
- The date in the last stopgap law, which sets the next deadline
- Whether 60 senators will vote to end debate on a funding bill
- Disputes attached to funding: spending levels, health subsidies, immigration enforcement