Analytics
Will there be exactly 1 government shutdown by December 31, 2027?
politicsActive
Closes Jan 1, 2028 UTC
Yes
36.0%
No
64.0%
Yes costs 36¢No costs 64¢
24h Volume
$1
Total volume
$6.1K
Liquidity
$7.4K
Closes
Jan 1, 2028 UTC
Topic roomGovernment shutdown
Where it stands
Yes is at 36%, about where the market opened on 6 Nov 2026.
Across the 10 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 36.5% on 7 Nov 2026 and the lowest 35.5% on 6 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 36.5%.
1 is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?”, ahead of 2 at 31.5%.
Across the latest 82 trades, $471.11 bought Yes and $2.25K bought No.
Ten wallets hold 95.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 6 Nov 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 30%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 35.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 36.0% |
All outcomes
How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?
- 11This market$6.05K traded36.0%
- 22$3.79K traded31.5%
- 30
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 656.9 |
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 532.55 |
| BuD | Yes | 400.41 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in Government shutdown
- The date in the last stopgap law, which sets the next deadline
- Whether 60 senators will vote to end debate on a funding bill
- Disputes attached to funding: spending levels, health subsidies, immigration enforcement