Analytics
Will there be no government shutdown by December 31, 2027?
politicsActive
Closes Jan 1, 2028 UTC
Yes
19.5%
No
80.5%
Yes costs 19.5¢No costs 80.5¢
24h Volume
$9.4K
Total volume
$9.4K
Liquidity
$6.9K
Closes
Jan 1, 2028 UTC
Topic roomGovernment shutdown
Where it stands
Yes is at 19.5%, up 5 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 20.5% on 13 Nov 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 6 Nov 2026.
0 ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?”. 1 leads at 36%; 2 is at 31.5%.
The best bid and the best ask are 3.0% apart, so read the price as a range. Across the latest 69 trades, $622.71 bought Yes and $3.17K bought No; the largest was a $1.14K sell of No at 84.0¢.
Ten wallets hold 90.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:07 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 6 Nov 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 12%–24%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 14.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 19.5% |
All outcomes
How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?
- 11$6.05K traded36.0%
- 22$3.79K traded31.5%
- 30This market
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| purplewater | Yes | 1.5K |
| BetterFish | No | 600 |
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 532.55 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in Government shutdown
- The date in the last stopgap law, which sets the next deadline
- Whether 60 senators will vote to end debate on a funding bill
- Disputes attached to funding: spending levels, health subsidies, immigration enforcement