Analytics
Yes is at 47.5%, up 8.5 points from 39% when the market opened on 30 Jul 2026.
Across the 86 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 15% on 24 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 31.5%; a month before, 31.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 32% on 14 Aug 2026.
2 ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “How many Israeli elections before government formed?”. 1 leads at 48%; 3 is at 4.5%.
$12.59K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $55.92K since listing. The order book holds $40.1K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5.87K bought Yes and $5.36K bought No; the largest was a $3.26K sell of No at 72.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Monstrous-Uncle-Viola with 4.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 6.3K. Ten wallets hold 81.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 86 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 39.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 47.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.3K |
| Monstrous-Uncle-Viola | Yes | 4.75K |
| BetItAllOnRed | No | 3.97K |
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-israeli-elections-before-government-formed-20260728195012183
| RAJAGO | Yes | 1.64K |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1.56K |
| Crimson Horizon 4E4A | Yes | 1.33K |
| buoys | Yes | 1.08K |
| whig | Yes | 1.01K |
| kohalacoastgabe | Yes | 653.84 |
| Indigo Atlas 9912 | No | 590.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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