Analytics
Yes is at 4%, about where the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 8 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 5 Nov 2026, the highest close was 5% on 4 Nov 2026 and the lowest 3% on 2 Nov 2026.
$249.07 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.99K since listing. The order book holds $2.18K, with a 5.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 37 trades, $65.94 bought Yes and $650.38 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Numitus1994 with 115 shares; the largest No position is Shoddy-Community with 459. Ten wallets hold 84.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 3:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 5 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 4.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Shoddy-Community | No | 459.29 |
| autisem | No | 261 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 115.42 |
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset took place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Likud and at least one Arab party are both included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An Arab party is defined as a political party that primarily serves to represent the interests of Israeli Arabs or Palestinians. A Jewish or nonsectarian political party which does not primarily represent the interests of Arabs will not qualify, regardless of whether it runs Arab candidates or courts Arab voters. Qualifying examples include Ra'am (United Arab List) and the Joint List. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-election-arab-party-and-likud-in-coalition
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 108.66 |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 101.95 |
| HaLper | Yes | 90.12 |
| Verifiable-Pedal-Cricket | Yes | 68.17 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 63.18 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 60 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 60 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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