Analytics
Yes is at 87%, up 5.5 points from 81.5% when the market opened on 13 Oct 2026.
Across the 13 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 81.5% on 13 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 85.5%. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 87.5% on 14 Oct 2026.
Marine Le Pen is the favourite of the 16 outcomes in “French Presidential Election First Round Winner”, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 4.5%.
$3.1K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $42.25K since listing. The order book holds $50.16K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 262 trades, $13.73K bought Yes and $1.97K bought No; the largest was a $3.03K sell of Yes at 85.0¢.
The largest Yes position is DFK with 3.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.1K. Ten wallets hold 86.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 18 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 75%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 81.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 87.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.1K |
| DFK | Yes | 3.47K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 2.16K |
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-first-round-winner
4 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| True-Futon |
| No |
| 1.69K |
| Newshound | Yes | 1.68K |
| Chulee | Yes | 1.2K |
| Snoorrason | No | 836.53 |
| sweetj | No | 708.5 |
| jackedups | Yes | 489.79 |
| Donny.T | Yes | 405.35 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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