Analytics
Yes is at 3.1%, down 42 points from 45% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 285 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 27 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 12 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.7%; a month before, 8%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 19% on 6 Jan 2026.
Arman Tsarukyan ranks second of the 12 outcomes in “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?”. Justin Gaethje leads at 90.8%; Ilia Topuria is at 0.6%.
$112.69 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $50.65K since listing. The order book holds $3.46K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.71K bought Yes and $4.54K bought No.
The largest Yes position is macrosteaks with 8.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 10.3K. Ten wallets hold 81.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 285 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 45.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.27K |
| termsandcondition | No | 9.06K |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 8.8K |
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-ufc-lightweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026
| resfeber | Yes | 4.09K |
| WholeFawn1278 | Yes | 1.27K |
| markmir | No | 1.22K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 1.01K |
| Bulan | No | 1K |
| afossuka | Yes | 921.12 |
| sweetj | Yes | 822.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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