Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 5.5 points from 5.5% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 270 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 5.5% on 5 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%; a month before, 0.1%.
Dan Hooker ranks seventh of the 12 outcomes in “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?”. Justin Gaethje leads at 92.5%; Arman Tsarukyan is at 4.9%.
$2.17K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.22K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 88 trades, $2.36 bought Yes and $943.19 bought No.
The largest Yes position is plainfolder with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 10.3K. Ten wallets hold 81.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 270 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 5.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.27K |
| plainfolder | Yes | 1.37K |
| qwen300.fund | Yes | 995.33 |
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-ufc-lightweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026
| HandsomeKing | Yes | 883.92 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 876.91 |
| balthazar | Yes | 640.63 |
| Lucerys | Yes | 570.49 |
| Comfortable-Sandwich | Yes | 498 |
| quietparcel | Yes | 365.25 |
| donthackme | Yes | 321.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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