Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 25 points from 25% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 264 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (36 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25% on 5 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%; a month before, 0.1%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 8% on 6 Jan 2026.
Shavkat Rakhmonov ranks fifth of the 12 outcomes in “Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?”. Islam Makhachev leads at 96%; Carlos Prates is at 2.4%.
$203.44K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $3.31K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 256 trades, $40.83 bought Yes and $100.78K bought No; the largest was a $4.86K sell of No at 99.5¢.
The largest Yes position is labistiiia with 1,000 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 6.2K. Ten wallets hold 86.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 264 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 25.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.21K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 999.98 |
| Lucerys | Yes | 826.42 |
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-ufc-welterweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026
| balthazar |
| Yes |
| 660.34 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 524.58 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 498.92 |
| godblessme2026 | Yes | 292 |
| korda77 | Yes | 273.69 |
| norealtime | Yes | 249.6 |
| 2kparabellum | Yes | 182.75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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