Analytics
Yes is at 95.4%, up 80 points from 15.5% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 300 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 6 Nov 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.5% on 6 Nov 2026 and the lowest 4.1% on 6 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 90.6%; a month before, 90.1%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 38% on 16 Jun 2026.
Justin Gaethje is the favourite of the 12 outcomes in “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?”, ahead of Arman Tsarukyan at 2.6%.
$10 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $62.6K since listing. The order book holds $5.64K, with a 2.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.99K bought Yes and $973.01 bought No.
The largest Yes position is elmcap2 with 6.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 10.5K. Ten wallets hold 73.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 56 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 6, 10:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 300 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 6 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 15.5% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | 95.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.5K |
| elmcap2 | Yes | 6.55K |
| aliaspopeye | Yes | 1.96K |
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-ufc-lightweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026
| BobbyBakedBeans |
| No |
| 1.62K |
| macrosteaks | No | 1.55K |
| usurper55 | Yes | 1.21K |
| Robbb | Yes | 1.11K |
| Jdo99 | Yes | 1.06K |
| yatata | No | 1K |
| PhilHawesLover | Yes | 836.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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