Analytics
Yes is at 41%, down 5.5 points from 46.5% when the market opened on 31 Dec 2025.
Across the 275 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59% on 7 Jan 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 17 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 42.5%; a month before, 44.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 36% on 21 Jan 2026.
$537.52 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $480.61K since listing. The order book holds $18.21K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.58K bought Yes and $1.96K bought No; the largest was a $1.28K sell of No at 56.2¢.
The largest Yes position is PandL with 4.8K shares; the largest No position is notssf3 with 17.4K. Ten wallets hold 58.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 275 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 46.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 41.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| notssf3 | No | 17.39K |
| imakebigbets | No | 7.11K |
| PandL | Yes | 4.77K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026
| Zptml |
| Yes |
| 3.23K |
| Musk5 | No | 2.74K |
| io3 | Yes | 1.76K |
| defidegen42069 | Yes | 1.73K |
| Single-Challenge | No | 1.4K |
| Grimy-Expose | Yes | 1.03K |
| PancraceRoyer | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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