Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 49 points from 63.5% when the market opened on 22 Jul 2026.
Across the 92 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 84.5% on 1 Aug 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 7 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16.5%; a month before, 13.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 56.5% on 20 Aug 2026.
It is one of 33 markets under “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”.
$689.57 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.41M since listing. The order book holds $138.75K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $35.91K bought Yes and $181.64K bought No; the largest was a $23.26K buy of No at 91.0¢.
The largest Yes position is greater-fools with 113.5K shares; the largest No position is JnStrtPrdctnMrkts with 278.1K. Ten wallets hold 66.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 92 points, 22 Jul 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | 63.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JnStrtPrdctnMrkts | No | 278.08K |
| greater-fools | Yes | 113.45K |
| AllByMyseIf | Yes | 112.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027
21 more markets, none above 4.7%.
| Lunarcorona | Yes | 73.4K |
| Cyclewin | Yes | 69.29K |
| oegdatam | No | 63.78K |
| DFV2 | No | 57.71K |
| RealMaxNick | No | 49.72K |
| JaneStPredictions | No | 42.07K |
| MickyMauldib | No | 38.92K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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