Analytics
Yes is at 41.5%, down 25 points from 66% when the market opened on 26 Aug 2026.
Across the 60 daily closes on record from 26 Aug 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 68.5% on 16 Sep 2026 and the lowest 26.5% on 7 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 39%; a month before, 33.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 47.5% on 19 Sep 2026.
It is one of 30 markets under “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”.
$169.9K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.29M since listing. The order book holds $68.25K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $108.96K bought Yes and $66.43K bought No; the largest was a $40.77K buy of Yes at 36.0¢.
The largest Yes position is AllByMyseIf with 110.5K shares; the largest No position is JnStPrdctns with 245.2K. Ten wallets hold 77.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 5:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 26 Aug 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | 66.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 41.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JnStPrdctns | No | 245.22K |
| JnStrtPrdctnMrkts | No | 217.19K |
| AllByMyseIf | Yes | 110.52K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027
18 more markets, none above 3.1%.
| boyau | Yes | 96.02K |
| max1ved | Yes | 80.88K |
| greater-fools | Yes | 71.76K |
| ohranoid | Yes | 35.99K |
| Quiet Falcon 3CA7 | Yes | 30.75K |
| tsihkodiives | No | 27.07K |
| RealMaxNick | No | 21.46K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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