Analytics
Yes is at 3%, down 1.4 points from 4.5% when the market opened on 10 Jan 2026.
Across the 262 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.8% on 6 Feb 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 2 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.9%; a month before, 3.4%.
$632.14 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.31M since listing. The order book holds $83.79K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.28K bought Yes and $32.13K bought No; the largest was a $11.29K sell of No at 97.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Bumblefrog with 299.6K shares; the largest No position is LucasMeow with 340K. Ten wallets hold 62.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 10:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 262 points, 10 Jan 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2026 | 4.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 3.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LucasMeow | No | 340K |
| Bumblefrog | Yes | 299.59K |
| kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk | Yes | 283.85K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026
| sumipumi777 |
| Yes |
| 197.84K |
| 765g567 | Yes | 177.97K |
| Favorto | Yes | 155.87K |
| Serene-Decision | No | 127.52K |
| Dertp | Yes | 97.41K |
| elmcap2 | No | 77.04K |
| Trashbag | No | 62.46K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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