Analytics
Yes is at 22.5%, down 23 points from 45.5% when the market opened on 26 Aug 2026.
Across the 59 daily closes on record from 26 Aug 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 16 Sep 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 7 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 22.5%; a month before, 20.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 28.5% on 19 Sep 2026.
It is one of 31 markets under “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”.
$13.11K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $667.69K since listing. The order book holds $179.74K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $57.01K bought Yes and $101.24K bought No; the largest was a $19.47K buy of No at 83.0¢.
The largest Yes position is greater-fools with 145.9K shares; the largest No position is JnStrtPrdctnMrkts with 133.8K. Ten wallets hold 75.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 10:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 26 Aug 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | 45.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 22.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| greater-fools | Yes | 145.89K |
| JnStrtPrdctnMrkts | No | 133.75K |
| 0xDCCrane | No | 85.64K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027
19 more markets, none above 3.1%.
| Quiet Falcon 3CA7 | Yes | 42.83K |
| JaneStPredictions | No | 31.84K |
| AllByMyseIf | Yes | 31.14K |
| Berkaja | Yes | 18.52K |
| emrico | Yes | 14.85K |
| JnStPrdctns | No | 13.61K |
| DrTie | Yes | 12.51K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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