Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 51 points from 57.5% when the market opened on 25 Nov 2025.
Across the 332 daily closes on record from 25 Nov 2025 to 5 Nov 2026 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 83.5% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 5 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%; a month before, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 78.5% on 6 Feb 2026.
It is one of 30 markets under “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”.
$124.18K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.38M since listing. The order book holds $251.74K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $10.24K bought Yes and $199.52K bought No; the largest was a $76.73K buy of No at 89.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Cyclewin with 144.5K shares; the largest No position is JnStrtPrdctnMrkts with 428K. Ten wallets hold 42.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 57 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 9:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 332 points, 25 Nov 2025 – 5 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | 57.5% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JnStrtPrdctnMrkts | No | 427.99K |
| Cyclewin | Yes | 144.45K |
| Serene-Decision | No | 142.28K |
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027
18 more markets, none above 2.1%.
| 0xDCCrane | No | 83.43K |
| AndreasSchm | Yes | 67.69K |
| ETHhedge | Yes | 61.06K |
| Berkaja | Yes | 50K |
| gdebablo | Yes | 50K |
| floatingraft | No | 50K |
| greater-fools | Yes | 44.68K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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