What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 8.5¢ and No at 91.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 8.5% for Yes and 91.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($20.67K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($140.78K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 304 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 60.7% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 26, 7:42 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? Odds

Market referencebab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31Updated just now

geopoliticsActive

Closes Nov 1, 2026 UTCpoliticshouthi

Yes

8.5%

91.5%

Buy Yes 8.5¢Buy No 91.5¢

24h Volume

$20.7K

Liquidity

$140.8K

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Yes price

8.5¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

8.5%

91.5%

24h volume

$20.67K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 8.5¢

Open in terminal$20.67K 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

3m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

1.0%

Observed

just now

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

8.5%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

304

Wallets

304

Top 10 share

61%

Yes / No shares

339.81K / 339.81K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

196

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
RememberAmalek	Yes	91.98K	11.1%	$114.34K
hymolu	No	70K	85.2%	$70K

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 8.5¢ and No at 91.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 8.5% for Yes and 91.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($20.67K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($140.78K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

RememberAmalek

Yes

91.98K

11.1%

$114.34K

hymolu

70K

85.2%

$70K

Trader	Current holding value
hymolu	$64.05K
tennisclub	$35.57K
megaforest	$33.44K
RenanPresidente.	$21.84K
hosoon123	$20.76K
sabsabinxz	$14.28K
Stark-Therapy	$11.89K
nedsta	$11.88K
65765757	$10.76K
Tigerofthehood	$9.33K
gosouth	$9.31K
zthunderfury	$8.91K