Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 7 points from 21.5% when the market opened on 10 Jul 2026.
Across the 104 daily closes on record from 10 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36% on 20 Jul 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 6 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15.5%; a month before, 18.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 25% on 11 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?”.
$890.93 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.93M since listing. The order book holds $101.86K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $11.67K bought Yes and $36.95K bought No; the largest was a $24.9K sell of No at 83.0¢.
The largest Yes position is RememberAmalek with 216.1K shares; the largest No position is Votei14Voude22 with 83.5K. Ten wallets hold 56.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 104 points, 10 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | 21.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 216.09K |
| Votei14Voude22 | No | 83.46K |
| 65765757 | No | 82.32K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
| BigRabbit |
| Yes |
| 67.66K |
| GayPride | Yes | 65.11K |
| hymolu | No | 60K |
| anoin123 | No | 44.34K |
| 5038813185 | Yes | 40.2K |
| mr.oziVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 40K |
| Kevindoto | No | 30K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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