Analytics
Yes is at 2.6%, down 8.4 points from 11% when the market opened on 22 Aug 2026.
Across the 60 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.5% on 11 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 8.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 20.5% on 11 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?”.
$9.13K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.54M since listing. The order book holds $87.5K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.59K bought Yes and $47.42K bought No; the largest was a $30.36K sell of No at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is RememberAmalek with 170.4K shares; the largest No position is hymolu with 100K. Ten wallets hold 62.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 22 Aug 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | 11.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 2.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 170.43K |
| hymolu | No | 100K |
| 5038813185 | Yes | 55.02K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
| GayPride |
| Yes |
| 43.05K |
| Alpheo | No | 40K |
| betwick | Yes | 32.93K |
| zthunderfury | No | 31.32K |
| Tigerofthehood | No | 30.2K |
| thoodr | No | 26.23K |
| Bukaj0889 | No | 16.32K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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