Analytics
Yes is at 10.5%, about where the market opened on 14 Oct 2026.
The high was 11.5% on 17 Oct 2026 and the low 10.5% on 14 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?”.
$749.75 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $58.71K since listing. The order book holds $111.15K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 65 trades, $4.04K bought Yes and $4.39K bought No; the largest was a $1.5K buy of No at 84.2¢.
The largest Yes position is Fearless-Misnomer with 18K shares; the largest No position is hymolu with 32.5K. Ten wallets hold 95.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 44 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 19, 12:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 14 Oct 2026 – 19 Oct 2026, chart shows 6%–16%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hymolu | No | 32.49K |
| Fearless-Misnomer | Yes | 18K |
| GayPride | Yes | 10K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
| ShewasonlyonTRT |
| Yes |
| 4.7K |
| Jin-2026 | No | 1.6K |
| Cungly | Yes | 1.3K |
| Tmagic23 | Yes | 1.25K |
| DiaMat | No | 1K |
| MrMelonHead | Yes | 609.09 |
| Polished-Foray | Yes | 600 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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