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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 291.99 | $0.907 | $264.25 | -$0.51 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | sell | 198 | $0.860 | $170.28 | 10h ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 329.33 |
| $0.614 |
| $245.35 |
| +$43.21 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 276.67 | $0.822 | $234.34 | +$6.97 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 261.45 | $0.834 | $228.77 | +$10.82 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 230.48 | $0.920 | $215.5 | +$3.46 |
 Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | Yes | 215.97 | $0.780 | $206.47 | +$37.89 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 346.03 | $0.565 | $188.59 | -$6.82 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 196.06 | $0.940 | $183.32 | -$0.98 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 219.11 | $0.873 | $182.96 | -$8.22 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 406.09 | $0.658 | $180.71 | -$86.43 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 211.75 | $0.414 | $170.46 | +$82.82 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | No | 185.94 | $0.681 | $158.98 | +$32.36 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Yes | 178.82 | $0.845 | $154.68 | +$3.66 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 192.65 | $0.718 | $141.59 | +$3.24 |
 Will Rafael Fonteles win the 2026 Piauí gubernatorial election? | Yes | 111.13 | $0.970 | $109.58 | +$1.78 |
 Will CDU win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 106.54 | $0.975 | $104.89 | +$1.01 |
 Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 95.5 | $0.957 | $92.77 | +$1.38 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 192.04 | $0.315 | $80.94 | +$20.52 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 149.69 | $0.584 | $78.59 | -$8.85 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 107.74 | $0.610 | $70.57 | +$4.85 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 104.13 | $0.480 | $54.67 | +$4.69 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 157.2 | $0.310 | $44.02 | -$4.72 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 50.79 | $0.686 | $43.42 | +$8.59 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | Yes | 238.68 | $0.500 | $39.38 | -$79.96 |
 Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | No | 99 | $0.320 | $31.19 | -$0.49 |
| sell |
| 62 |
| $0.840 |
| $52.08 |
| 19h ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | buy | 54.64 | $0.850 | $46.44 | 22h ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 79.07 | $0.730 | $57.72 | 1d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 113.58 | $0.710 | $80.64 | 1d ago |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | sell | 188 | $0.560 | $105.28 | 1d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 64.67 | $0.960 | $62.08 | 1d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | buy | 107.74 | $0.610 | $65.72 | 2d ago |
| Will Rafael Fonteles win the 2026 Piauí gubernatorial election?Yes | buy | 111.13 | $0.970 | $107.8 | 2d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 56 | $0.850 | $47.6 | 2d ago |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 218 | $0.940 | $204.92 | 2d ago |
 Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 150 | $0.953 | $142.95 | 2d ago |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | sell | 65 | $0.961 | $62.46 | 2d ago |
 Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes | buy | 18.34 | $0.285 | $5.22 | 3d ago |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | buy | 65.34 | $0.963 | $62.92 | 3d ago |
| Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 106.67 | $0.150 | $16 | 3d ago |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.190 | $19 | 3d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 151.3 | $0.704 | $106.5 | 3d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes | buy | 62.72 | $0.860 | $53.94 | 4d ago |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 50.26 | $0.968 | $48.65 | 4d ago |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 100.52 | $0.968 | $97.3 | 4d ago |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes | buy | 108.33 | $0.120 | $13 | 4d ago |
| Will CDU win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No | buy | 106.54 | $0.975 | $103.88 | 4d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 61.11 | $0.540 | $33 | 5d ago |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?No | buy | 106.46 | $0.064 | $6.79 | 6d ago |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No | buy | 99 | $0.320 | $31.68 | 7d ago |
 Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?Yes | buy | 96.42 | $0.876 | $84.48 | 7d ago |
 Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Yes | buy | 102.53 | $0.945 | $96.9 | 7d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?No | buy | 95.49 | $0.973 | $92.91 | 7d ago |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 104.13 | $0.480 | $49.98 | 8d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | sell | 162 | $0.720 | $116.64 | 8d ago |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No | sell | 218 | $0.950 | $207.1 | 8d ago |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | sell | 210 | $0.962 | $202.02 | 8d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 284.91 | $0.570 | $162.4 | 8d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes | buy | 80.94 | $0.850 | $68.8 | 8d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes | buy | 97.16 | $0.830 | $80.64 | 8d ago |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 432 | $0.840 | $362.88 | 9d ago |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No | buy | 95.5 | $0.957 | $91.39 | 9d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 2.02 | $0.820 | $1.66 | 9d ago |
 US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?No | buy | 138 | $0.990 | $136.62 | 9d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | buy | 220.48 | $0.880 | $194.02 | 10d ago |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | buy | 110.66 | $0.829 | $91.74 | 10d ago |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | buy | 54.6 | $0.900 | $49.14 | 11d ago |
 Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?Yes | buy | 208.12 | $0.970 | $201.88 | 11d ago |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 196.06 | $0.940 | $184.3 | 12d ago |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | sell | 250.09 | $0.960 | $240.09 | 12d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 421.96 | $0.980 | $413.6 | 12d ago |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 31.95 | $0.077 | $2.46 | 12d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 183.91 | $0.679 | $124.96 | 13d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 65.34 | $0.957 | $62.53 | 13d ago |