Analytics
Resolved No on 5 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 17 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 17 Mar 2026 to 5 May 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 30 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 29% on 31 Mar 2026. $1.65M traded over the market's life.
459 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 13, 3:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 17 Mar 2026 – 5 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | 25.5% |
| 5 May 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Suburban-Measure | Yes | 32K |
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 9.02K |
| wangmao00 | Yes | 7.15K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
| YuriSparkov | Yes | 6.68K |
| Israeli-guys | Yes | 6.3K |
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 5.84K |
| Lucyfer.eth | Yes | 5.12K |
| deltavex | Yes | 5.12K |
| BT-polymarket | Yes | 5K |
| Dr.Hamad | Yes | 4.36K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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