What is the “Iran nuclear test before 2027?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Iran nuclear test before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 4.5¢ and No at 95.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 4.5% for Yes and 95.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($258.47K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($27.28K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 259 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 54.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 14, 5:24 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Iran nuclear test before 2027? | Polymarket odds & analytics

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Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Iran nuclear test before 2027? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referenceiran-nuclear-test-before-2027Updated 1m ago

politicsActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027nucleariran

Yes

4.5%

95.5%

Buy Yes 4.5¢Buy No 95.5¢

24h Volume

$258.5K

Liquidity

$27.3K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Yes price

4.5¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

4.5%

95.5%

24h volume

$258.47K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 4.5¢

Open in terminal$258.47K 24h vol

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

3m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

1.0%

Observed

1m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

4.5%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

259

Wallets

259

Top 10 share

55%

Yes / No shares

34.95K / 34.95K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

266

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
jesus911	Yes	8K	4.0%	$8K
Talophex	No	5.46K	94.4%	$19.41K	Sep 1, 2:36 PM

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Iran nuclear test before 2027?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Iran nuclear test before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 4.5¢ and No at 95.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 4.5% for Yes and 95.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($258.47K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($27.28K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
Talophex	$5.22K
lava-lava	$4.21K
forinnerpsandr1x11222	$3.41K
BlindAndDeaf	$2.01K
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	$1.99K
CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile	$1.91K
Scoofy-Bubik	$1.75K
Krass	$1.43K
4bet	$1.26K
Adamtulu	$1.25K
ChetterHummin	$973.94
Solar Raven A90C	$921.56