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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 767.82 | $0.912 | $737.5 | +$37.5 |
 China x Japan military clash before 2027? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | sell | 272.83 | $0.170 | $46.38 | 11d ago |
|
| No |
| 782.42 |
| $0.895 |
| $731.56 |
| +$31.56 |
 Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 526.82 | $0.949 | $506.54 | +$6.54 |
 Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | No | 415.19 | $0.963 | $399.62 | -$0.38 |
 Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | No | 313.12 | $0.958 | $297.94 | -$2.06 |
 Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 210.53 | $0.950 | $198.95 | -$1.05 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 380.98 | $0.730 | $55.24 | -$222.76 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 312.5 | $0.640 | $42.19 | -$157.81 |
 Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? | Yes | 71.87 | $0.278 | $18.33 | -$1.67 |
 Anduril IPO before 2027? | Yes | 195.1 | $0.512 | $13.66 | -$86.34 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 182.54 | $0.110 | $11.87 | -$8.13 |
 Iran nuclear test before 2027? | Yes | 200 | $0.050 | $8.3 | -$1.7 |
 Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | Yes | 101.9 | $0.147 | $8.25 | -$6.75 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 40.82 | $0.490 | $7.96 | -$12.04 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? | Yes | 99.38 | $0.070 | $7.35 | +$0.35 |
 Russia coup attempt in 2026? | Yes | 71.43 | $0.070 | $3.93 | -$1.07 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? | Yes | 106.58 | $0.122 | $3.73 | -$9.27 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50 | $0.100 | $2.75 | -$2.25 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026? | Yes | 104.3 | $0.071 | $1.72 | -$5.68 |
| buy |
| 166.67 |
| $0.240 |
| $40 |
| 22d ago |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.050 | $10 | 22d ago |
| Trump out as President before 2027?No | buy | 210.53 | $0.950 | $200 | 22d ago |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?Yes | buy | 71.87 | $0.278 | $20 | 22d ago |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?No | buy | 313.12 | $0.958 | $300 | 22d ago |
 Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | buy | 175.56 | $0.011 | $2 | 22d ago |
 Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes | sell | 1.22K | $0.120 | $146.19 | 28d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | buy | 106.17 | $0.188 | $20 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | buy | 40.82 | $0.490 | $20 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026?Yes | buy | 71.43 | $0.070 | $5 | Aug 10, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 887.95 | $0.910 | $808.03 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | buy | 84.25 | $0.059 | $5 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | buy | 233.3 | $0.043 | $10 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | buy | 118.32 | $0.042 | $5 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Yes | sell | 119.51 | $0.103 | $12.33 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?Yes | sell | 189.94 | $0.080 | $15.2 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?No | buy | 210.08 | $0.952 | $200 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.100 | $5 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?Yes | buy | 37.9 | $0.158 | $6 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026?Yes | buy | 106.58 | $0.122 | $13 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026?Yes | buy | 104.3 | $0.071 | $7.4 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?Yes | buy | 99.38 | $0.070 | $7 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?Yes | buy | 64 | $0.141 | $9 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 415.19 | $0.963 | $400 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Yes | buy | 36.11 | $0.554 | $20 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Yes | sell | 38.17 | $0.293 | $11.18 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 22?Up | buy | 9.43 | $0.530 | $5 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Yes | buy | 38.17 | $0.131 | $5 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Yes | buy | 19.8 | $0.505 | $10 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Yes | buy | 83.4 | $0.240 | $20 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | buy | 208.55 | $0.959 | $200 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes | sell | 87.5 | $0.870 | $76.13 | Jul 20, 2026 |
 Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 255.41 | $0.780 | $199.22 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 121.95 | $0.820 | $100 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?No | buy | 316.74 | $0.947 | $300 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 133.47 | $0.749 | $100 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes | buy | 87.5 | $0.800 | $70 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.090 | $5 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 51.55 | $0.194 | $10 | Jul 1, 2026 |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 30.58 | $0.327 | $10 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 71.43 | $0.140 | $10 | Jul 1, 2026 |
 Ebola pandemic in 2026?No | sell | 108.69 | $0.920 | $99.99 | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 246.91 | $0.810 | $200 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.054 | $3 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes | sell | 47.61 | $0.780 | $37.14 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027?No | buy | 215.05 | $0.930 | $200 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027?No | buy | 107.53 | $0.930 | $100 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 55.26 | $0.210 | $11.6 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 641.04 | $0.780 | $500 | Jun 21, 2026 |