Analytics
Yes is at 4%, down 5.5 points from 9.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 344 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 21.5% on 11 Mar 2026 and the lowest 2.8% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.8%; a month before, 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 20% on 8 Nov 2025.
$280.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $53.73K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.04K bought Yes and $23.37K bought No; the largest was a $4.73K sell of No at 94.7¢.
The largest Yes position is Discombobulator7 with 10K shares; the largest No position is Talophex with 10.1K. Ten wallets hold 53.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 2:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 344 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 9.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Talophex | No | 10.12K |
| Discombobulator7 | Yes | 10K |
| jesus911 | Yes | 8K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027
| Stableincome |
| No |
| 5.81K |
| FatCat05 | Yes | 4.32K |
| forinnerpsandr1x11222 | No | 3.57K |
| Thrifty-Handicap | Yes | 3.48K |
| bigshort | No | 3.24K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 3.21K |
| aosdijf | Yes | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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