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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 5.97K | $0.511 | $2.72K | -$333.17 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes | sell | 309.99 | $0.070 | $21.7 | 3h ago |
|
| No |
| 8.04K |
| $0.428 |
| $2.13K |
| -$1.31K |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 942.99 | $0.758 | $655.38 | -$59.74 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 1.84K | $0.345 | $357.89 | -$275.84 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 729.3 | $0.480 | $346.42 | -$3.84 |
 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | No | 569.99 | $0.509 | $282.14 | -$7.82 |
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 569.25 | $0.490 | $276.09 | -$3.04 |
 Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 251.67 | $0.572 | $206.37 | +$62.52 |
 Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | Yes | 2.48K | $0.689 | $186.03 | -$1.52K |
 Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | No | 253 | $0.598 | $163.19 | +$11.77 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 345 | $0.308 | $158.18 | +$51.99 |
 Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 151.06 | $0.828 | $142.15 | +$17.05 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 1.88K | $0.528 | $134.48 | -$858.5 |
 Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 149.8 | $0.892 | $133.47 | -$0.16 |
 Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 155 | $0.820 | $124.78 | -$2.32 |
 Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | Yes | 190 | $0.530 | $115.9 | +$15.2 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 318.59 | $0.356 | $113.1 | -$0.35 |
 Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | Yes | 162.15 | $0.432 | $112.69 | +$42.56 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 230 | $0.389 | $109.25 | +$19.75 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Yes | 948 | $0.140 | $109.02 | -$23.75 |
 Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 110 | $0.850 | $92.95 | -$0.55 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 534.27 | $0.533 | $89.76 | -$195.11 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | Yes | 3.65K | $0.363 | $85.66 | -$1.24K |
 Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 391.63 | $0.200 | $80.28 | +$1.96 |
 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 217.99 | $0.335 | $77.71 | +$4.67 |
| sell |
| 202.25 |
| $0.017 |
| $3.44 |
| 3h ago |
 Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?Yes | buy | 185.58 | $0.009 | $1.71 | 4h ago |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?No | sell | 5.5 | $0.390 | $2.15 | 20h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?No | sell | 10 | $0.330 | $3.3 | 20h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?No | sell | 10 | $0.260 | $2.6 | 20h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?No | sell | 14.5 | $0.400 | $5.8 | 20h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?No | sell | 20 | $0.610 | $12.2 | 20h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No | sell | 30 | $0.580 | $17.4 | 20h ago |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.270 | $2.7 | 1d ago |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in August?Yes | buy | 10.6 | $0.110 | $1.17 | 1d ago |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.009 | $0.9 | 1d ago |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.270 | $2.7 | 1d ago |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% in August?Yes | buy | 43 | $0.090 | $3.87 | 1d ago |
 Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 70 | $0.110 | $7.7 | 1d ago |
 Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Yes | buy | 16.49 | $0.423 | $6.98 | 1d ago |
 Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes | buy | 32 | $0.440 | $14.08 | 1d ago |
| Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes | buy | 32 | $0.437 | $13.98 | 1d ago |
| Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.240 | $12 | 1d ago |
| Will AfD win less than 14% of all valid second votes?No | buy | 40 | $0.920 | $36.8 | 1d ago |
| Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?No | buy | 40 | $0.810 | $32.4 | 1d ago |
| Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 70 | $0.300 | $21 | 1d ago |
 Will LPV come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.500 | $10 | 1d ago |
| Will LPV come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.500 | $20 | 1d ago |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No | buy | 29.99 | $0.360 | $10.8 | 1d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No | buy | 20 | $0.330 | $6.6 | 1d ago |
 Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.290 | $11.6 | 1d ago |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.190 | $7.6 | 1d ago |
| Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?No | buy | 20 | $0.430 | $8.6 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?No | buy | 10 | $0.210 | $2.1 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?No | buy | 10 | $0.250 | $2.5 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?No | buy | 20 | $0.310 | $6.2 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?No | buy | 20 | $0.350 | $7 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No | buy | 30 | $0.350 | $10.5 | 1d ago |
| Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No | buy | 20 | $0.780 | $15.6 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?Yes | sell | 180.77 | $0.750 | $135.58 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Yes | sell | 285.55 | $0.690 | $197.03 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | sell | 353.18 | $0.650 | $229.57 | 1d ago |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.820 | $16.4 | 2d ago |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 73.13 | $0.969 | $70.86 | 2d ago |
 Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31?Yes | sell | 60 | $0.986 | $59.16 | 2d ago |
| Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?Over | buy | 11.32 | $0.690 | $7.81 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No | buy | 20 | $0.770 | $15.4 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 5.89 | $0.280 | $1.65 | 2d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes | buy | 17 | $0.310 | $5.27 | 3d ago |
 Iran nuclear test before 2027?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | 3d ago |
 Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 52.48 | $0.429 | $22.5 | 3d ago |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 59.99 | $0.045 | $2.7 | 3d ago |
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.440 | $13.2 | 3d ago |
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.120 | $4.8 | 3d ago |