Analytics
Yes is at 9.7%, down 33 points from 43% when the market opened on 27 Jun 2026.
Across the 120 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43% on 27 Jun 2026 and the lowest 6.8% on 14 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.1%; a month before, 14.2%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 26.5% on 28 Jun 2026.
Pedro Sánchez ranks second of the 20 outcomes in “Next Prime Minister of Spain?”. Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads at 82.5%; Santiago Abascal is at 1.9%.
$39.69K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $784.08K since listing. The order book holds $116.7K, with a 0.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5.22K bought Yes and $41.93K bought No; the largest was a $20K buy of No at 88.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Emerald Raven EA1E with 28K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 152.7K. Ten wallets hold 64.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 6:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 120 points, 27 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | 43.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 9.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 152.74K |
| Remorseful-Pepperoni | No | 31.63K |
| Emerald Raven EA1E | Yes | 28.04K |
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443
8 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| Cuco84 | No | 25K |
| superuser855 | Yes | 24.24K |
| Batundi | No | 22.83K |
| antrax | Yes | 22.83K |
| monteazukar | No | 21.93K |
| SaganArb | Yes | 18.55K |
| STDgambler | Yes | 10.49K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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