Analytics
Yes is at 52.5% on Polymarket.
It is one of 2 markets under “Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?”.
$2.51K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $21.52K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 60 trades, $522.01 bought Yes and $397.69 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Quick-Witted-Appetiser with 542 shares; the largest No position is mantou11 with 190. Ten wallets hold 92% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 8:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 45%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 51.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Quick-Witted-Appetiser | Yes | 541.69 |
| mantou11 | No | 190 |
| Silver Atlas DDDA | No | 179.5 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551
| somkutim | Yes | 178.53 |
| AJSV | No | 143.57 |
| PMWolf | Yes | 124.26 |
| 0x34a9...d74cfd | No | 118.77 |
| jmonroig | No | 52 |
| lissartter | No | 40 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 22.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
