Analytics
Yes is at 3.1%, down 48 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 19 Nov 2025.
Across the 340 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2%; a month before, 3.4%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 68% on 20 Nov 2025.
It is one of 20 markets under “What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?”.
$82.21K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $19.13K, with a 3.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.52K bought Yes and $7.58K bought No; the largest was a $1.08K buy of No at 45.0¢.
The largest Yes position is whumpa with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is fed26 with 2.4K. Ten wallets hold 73.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 340 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2025 | 51.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| whumpa | Yes | 2.48K |
| fed26 | No | 2.35K |
| na6141mi3231bi321321a3213 | No | 1.85K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027
8 more markets, none above 2.1%.
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul |
| Yes |
| 1.54K |
| strategy1.2 | Yes | 1.29K |
| ratehikes | No | 1.24K |
| hippoka | No | 1.04K |
| puravida | No | 900.46 |
| BlazeAxel | Yes | 759.4 |
| CompulsiveGambler | Yes | 726.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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