Analytics
Yes is at 3.6%, down 33 points from 36.5% when the market opened on 19 Nov 2025.
Across the 317 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37% on 20 Nov 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 5 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.1%; a month before, 2.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 16% on 21 Nov 2025.
It is one of 20 markets under “What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?”.
$1.75K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $110.02K since listing. The order book holds $14.05K, with a 3.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 394 trades, $2.46K bought Yes and $21.13K bought No; the largest was a $1.94K buy of No at 95.6¢.
The largest Yes position is Moral-Conditioner with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is Nadmi with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 73.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 62 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 317 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2025 | 36.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Moral-Conditioner | Yes | 1.87K |
| Nadmi | No | 1.53K |
| Skaliz | No | 892.34 |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027
8 more markets, none above 2.2%.
| hgamezoon |
| No |
| 515.71 |
| ChairmanFed | Yes | 337.7 |
| Oldfarm | Yes | 226.88 |
| thebetter1234 | No | 199.43 |
| Tony108 | No | 195 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 192.72 |
| bazzaloing | No | 159.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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