Analytics
For Senate control — Democrats, Vultax simulated buys of Yes against Polymarket's order book. These results describe the books captured during the study. Check today's quotes and the market's resolution rules separately.
58 readings, every 30 minutes, 12 September 18:51 to 13 September 23:21 UTC. Up to 20 price levels. Cost is the median average fill price minus midpoint, in cents per share, only over readings with a full fill. Fees and other traders' reactions are excluded. Percentages are rounded; these were simulations, not executed orders. A failed fill within the captured levels does not prove the entire book lacked depth. Polymarket observations are from its international exchange.
Yes is at 67.5%, up 23 points from 45% when the market opened on 19 Jul 2025.
Across the 442 daily closes on record from 19 Jul 2025 to 29 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 23.5% on 25 Oct 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 63.5%; a month before, 62.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 29.5% on 20 Jul 2025.
Democratic Party is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?”, ahead of Republican Party at 32.5%.
$184.56K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.07M since listing. The order book holds $4.05M, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $62.11K bought Yes and $15.81K bought No; the largest was a $20K buy of Yes at 67.0¢.
The largest Yes position is BreakTheBank with 378.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 924.9K. Ten wallets hold 51.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 442 points, 19 Jul 2025 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2025 | 45.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 67.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 924.88K |
| thesingularityisnear | No | 479.8K |
| BreakTheBank | Yes | 378.62K |
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
| 11122 | No | 221.1K |
| ndb1 | No | 185.35K |
| bullishkirby | No | 136.94K |
| Imperfect-Beetle | No | 100K |
| BearKingdom | Yes | 79.93K |
| cocos228 | Yes | 71.9K |
| 0xac8db3b4afea21b73ffdc92fjk | Yes | 70.48K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
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