What is the “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: 5kt meteor strike in 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 24.5¢ and No at 75.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 24.5% for Yes and 75.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($7.65) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($1.23K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 326 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 47.1% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 16, 1:33 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Polymarket odds & analytics

Vultaxbeta

Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market reference5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026Updated 1m ago

Active

Closes Jan 1, 2027climate-sciencenasa

Yes

24.5%

75.5%

Buy Yes 24.5¢Buy No 75.5¢

24h Volume

Liquidity

$1.2K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Yes price

24.5¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

24.5%

75.5%

24h volume

$7.65

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 24.5¢

Open in terminal$7.65 24h vol

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

just now

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

5.0%

Observed

1m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

24.5%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

326

Wallets

326

Top 10 share

47%

Yes / No shares

16.1K / 16.1K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

268

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
LeopoldArschenbrenner	Yes	4.97K	30.4%	$5.42K
powderz	No	3.02K	53.9%	$3.02K

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: 5kt meteor strike in 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 24.5¢ and No at 75.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 24.5% for Yes and 75.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($7.65) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($1.23K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
powderz	$2.28K
LeopoldArschenbrenner	$1.22K
1660S.eth	$1.07K
Notable-Person	$733.71
MrMarket	$571.88
Orion96	$414.03
tsihkodiives	$387.19
Standard-Jackal	$383.67
ya1	$364.18
Butterbeer	$319.16
Needy-Function	$302
Golanido	$224.73