Analytics
The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.
A complete provider position result is unavailable. Missing positions and amounts are not shown as zero holdings.
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 38.17 | $0.917 | $36.47 | +$1.47 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Yes | buy | 7.69 | $0.650 | $5 | 1d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 21.09 |
| $0.853 |
| $18.25 |
| +$0.25 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 24.2 | $0.826 | $17.3 | -$2.7 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 24.11 | $0.664 | $14.71 | -$1.29 |
 Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 20 | $0.750 | $14.7 | -$0.3 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 14.31 | $0.688 | $13.38 | +$3.53 |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 17.27 | $0.695 | $11.66 | -$0.34 |
 Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? | No | 11.36 | $0.880 | $10.4 | +$0.4 |
 Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 10.4 | $0.962 | $10.24 | +$0.24 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | No | 9.77 | $0.716 | $9.65 | +$2.65 |
 Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | 9.52 | $0.630 | $9.32 | +$3.32 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 12.75 | $0.628 | $8.99 | +$0.99 |
 NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | 9.59 | $0.835 | $8.29 | +$0.29 |
 Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? | No | 8.28 | $0.725 | $7.83 | +$1.83 |
 Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? | No | 9.08 | $0.551 | $7.81 | +$2.81 |
 Weed rescheduled by December 31? | No | 8.96 | $0.558 | $7.52 | +$2.52 |
 Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | No | 7.31 | $0.958 | $7.11 | +$0.11 |
 Will knots flip bitcoin core before 2027? | No | 9.11 | $0.549 | $6.76 | +$1.76 |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | Yes | 10.19 | $0.589 | $6.57 | +$0.57 |
 Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? | No | 6.76 | $0.740 | $6.46 | +$1.46 |
 Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | No | 7.43 | $0.673 | $6.28 | +$1.28 |
 Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | No | 6.67 | $0.750 | $6.23 | +$1.23 |
 Human moon landing in 2026? | No | 6.27 | $0.957 | $6.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9.2 | $0.652 | $6.21 | +$0.21 |
 Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 6.94 | $0.720 | $6.15 | +$1.15 |
| buy |
| 10.2 |
| $0.490 |
| $5 |
| 1d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 7.35 | $0.680 | $5 | 1d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 5.62 | $0.890 | $5 | 1d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 6.76 | $0.740 | $5 | 1d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 16.04 | $0.935 | $15 | 12d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.02 | $0.830 | $5 | 12d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 12.4 | $0.310 | $3.84 | 12d ago |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.900 | $5 | 12d ago |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.92 | $0.844 | $5 | 12d ago |
 Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 11.36 | $0.880 | $10 | 12d ago |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?No | buy | 3.85 | $0.260 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.54 | $0.648 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 7.46 | $0.670 | $5 | 25d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 17.44 | $0.860 | $15 | 25d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 5.17 | $0.968 | $5 | 25d ago |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Yes | buy | 5.95 | $0.840 | $5 | 25d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?No | buy | 5.62 | $0.890 | $5 | 25d ago |
 Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.950 | $5 | 25d ago |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No | buy | 7.14 | $0.700 | $5 | 25d ago |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No | buy | 7.14 | $0.700 | $5 | 25d ago |
 Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 5.12 | $0.977 | $5 | 25d ago |
 New pandemic in 2026?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.950 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No | buy | 3.12 | $0.963 | $3 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "MIT" or "Massachusetts Institute of Technology" in August?No | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?Yes | buy | 5.68 | $0.880 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in August?Yes | buy | 6.33 | $0.790 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No | buy | 5.16 | $0.969 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 1.49 | $0.670 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 3.57 | $0.840 | $3 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 21.51 | $0.930 | $20 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?No | buy | 5.25 | $0.953 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 5.1 | $0.981 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No | buy | 5.49 | $0.910 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?No | buy | 5.56 | $0.900 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.81 | $0.861 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.33 | $0.790 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.950 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No | buy | 4.17 | $0.480 | $2 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No | buy | 2.63 | $0.760 | $2 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes | buy | 4.41 | $0.680 | $3 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 37.21 | $0.134 | $5 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes | buy | 6.94 | $0.720 | $5 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.9 | $0.339 | $2 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?No | buy | 15.96 | $0.940 | $15 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?No | buy | 20.62 | $0.970 | $20 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?Yes | buy | 26.2 | $0.191 | $5 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?No | sell | 36.69 | $0.813 | $29.83 | Jul 28, 2026 |