Analytics
Yes is at 34.3%, down 16 points from 50% when the market opened on 31 Dec 2025.
Across the 283 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 5 Nov 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93.5% on 3 Jan 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 13 Jan 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 38.7%; a month before, 50.3%. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 50% on 5 Jan 2026.
$587.87 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $109.52, with a 59.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 52 trades, $19.85 bought Yes and $220.34 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 32 shares; the largest No position is sirius420 with 63.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 57 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 11:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 283 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 5 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 34.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sirius420 | No | 62.96 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 31.75 |
| hesure | Yes | 25 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart. Resolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes. A data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31
| moonrise-clump |
| No |
| 9.11 |
| romanew-7-spread05 | Yes | 5 |
| 15rob | Yes | 4.06 |
| 51dgfd | Yes | 2.46 |
| PolyJaguar | Yes | 2.08 |
| Herreds | Yes | 2.06 |
| kukkalajanita | No | 1.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
