Analytics
Trading ended on 20 Oct 2026 with Yes at 2.7%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 243 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 31 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.6%; a month before, 3.9%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 15% on 1 Feb 2026.
$477.99K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is idfinsider0228 with 39.4K shares; the largest No position is groth with 10.2K. Ten wallets hold 57.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 28, 1:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 243 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 52.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| idfinsider0228 | Yes | 39.36K |
| groth | No | 10.2K |
| Baggy-Alder | Yes | 9.11K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026
| chriszyy3 |
| No |
| 9.08K |
| Cryptobahemith | No | 9.04K |
| Scalpoor | No | 8.1K |
| winnings | No | 7.8K |
| eloinko10 | Yes | 7.07K |
| Dog8-024 | Yes | 6.93K |
| Amber Signal 99B5 | Yes | 5.75K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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