Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 42 points from 58% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 325 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 84.5% on 20 Jan 2026 and the lowest 9% on 14 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 24.5%; a month before, 33.5%. Its largest one-day move was 47 points up, to 84.5% on 20 Jan 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?”.
$526.23 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $91.44K since listing. The order book holds $5.33K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.13K bought Yes and $9.15K bought No; the largest was a $1.79K buy of No at 89.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Brovadana with 2.1K shares; the largest No position is SnapElectionAvoider with 2.3K. Ten wallets hold 57.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 325 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 58.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 2.32K |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | No | 2.11K |
| Brovadana | Yes | 2.07K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by
| Sylvester.the.Cat | No | 2K |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1K |
| erlichbachmn | Yes | 901.54 |
| burge146 | Yes | 851.92 |
| nonkenny90 | No | 766 |
| Flaky-Ring | No | 588.24 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 575.65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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