Analytics
Yes is at 1.8%, down 57 points from 59% when the market opened on 16 Jul 2026.
Across the 101 daily closes on record from 16 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026, the highest close was 59% on 16 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.2% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.3%; a month before, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 49 points down, to 10% on 17 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?”.
$40 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $174.3K since listing. The order book holds $1.48K, with a 1.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2K bought Yes and $10.93K bought No; the largest was a $3.81K sell of No at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Turbulent-Decline-Router with 3.4K shares; the largest No position is nonkenny90 with 5.1K. Ten wallets hold 73% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 5:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 101 points, 16 Jul 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | 59.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 1.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| nonkenny90 | No | 5.15K |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 3.39K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 3.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 3.01K |
| QMG-CORE | No | 3.01K |
| thoodr | No | 1.93K |
| Jjw | No | 1.93K |
| Rumpelstiltskin | No | 1.01K |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 816.98 |
| mumps | Yes | 781.25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
