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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 4.94K | $0.836 | $4.37K | +$243.44 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 487.74 | $0.499 | $243.36 | 16h ago |
 |
| No |
| 909.78 |
| $0.669 |
| $786.96 |
| +$178.18 |
 SSI public model released by September 30, 2026? | No | 626.92 | $0.582 | $579.9 | +$214.81 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 423.97 | $0.635 | $288.3 | +$18.96 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 487.74 | $0.499 | $243.87 | +$0.51 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? | No | 480 | $0.504 | $230.4 | -$11.42 |
 Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? | No | 699.88 | $0.340 | $92.73 | -$145.37 |
 Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | Yes | 225.26 | $0.460 | $39.42 | -$64.2 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | No | 5.96 | $0.540 | $4.92 | +$1.7 |
 Anthropic acquired before 2027? | No | 2.53 | $0.600 | $2.45 | +$0.93 |
 Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | No | 1.12 | $0.670 | $1.09 | +$0.33 |
| buy |
| 480 |
| $0.504 |
| $241.82 |
| 16h ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Yes | buy | 423.97 | $0.635 | $269.34 | 16h ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 3.94K | $0.860 | $3.39K | 4d ago |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.61K | $0.989 | $2.58K | 4d ago |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 937.5 | $0.980 | $918.75 | 4d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.900 | $9K | 4d ago |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.14K | $0.912 | $1.04K | 4d ago |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.9K | $0.403 | $2.38K | 5d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 920.09 | $0.418 | $384.65 | 5d ago |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 909.78 | $0.669 | $608.79 | 5d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 210 | $0.750 | $157.4 | 6d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 371.38 | $0.316 | $117.35 | 6d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?No | buy | 403.22 | $0.850 | $342.74 | 7d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?Yes | sell | 77.99 | $0.220 | $17.16 | 7d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 3, 2026?Yes | buy | 74.54 | $0.720 | $53.67 | 7d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?Yes | sell | 999.99 | $0.270 | $270 | 7d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.14K | $0.539 | $616.9 | 8d ago |
| SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 626.92 | $0.582 | $365.09 | 8d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 5K | $0.968 | $4.84K | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.970 | $9.7K | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 455.77 | $0.875 | $398.71 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes | sell | 45 | $0.820 | $36.9 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.800 | $80 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 154.02 | $0.800 | $123.22 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 52.98 | $0.750 | $39.74 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Claude 4.8 released by May 31?Yes | buy | 53.95 | $0.910 | $49.09 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 53.29 | $0.860 | $45.83 | Apr 22, 2026 |
 Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?No | buy | 43.51 | $0.283 | $12.31 | Apr 21, 2026 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 3.24K | $0.003 | $9.73 | Apr 19, 2026 |
| GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.940 | $56.4 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.4 released by March 9?Yes | buy | 603.81 | $0.958 | $578.66 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 147.13 | $0.999 | $146.98 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.69K | $0.999 | $1.69K | Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 146 | $0.910 | $132.86 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes | buy | 690 | $0.800 | $552 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No | sell | 343.8 | $0.323 | $110.94 | Feb 24, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No | sell | 2.53K | $0.175 | $443.04 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes | sell | 1.18K | $0.080 | $94.24 | Feb 19, 2026 |
 Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes | sell | 2K | $0.017 | $34 | Feb 19, 2026 |
 Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.25K | $0.014 | $17.69 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 797.38 | $0.894 | $713.17 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 1.25K | $0.773 | $969.07 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 1.16K | $0.268 | $311.83 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 935.29 | $0.861 | $805.02 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?No | buy | 205 | $0.690 | $141.45 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?Yes | buy | 749 | $0.358 | $268.42 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 188 | $0.780 | $146.64 | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.1K | $0.850 | $1.79K | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.46K | $0.050 | $73 | Feb 4, 2026 |